2009 Season Preview: Right Field

Jayson Werth’s main ambition the last few years has been to be an everyday player in the big leagues.  In 2009, it appears he will finally get his chance.  Actually, Werth got the chance to play everyday during the second half of last season, when platoon partner Geoff Jenkins went down with an injury in August.  Werth took the opportunity and ran, hitting .313/.433/.639 for the month and relegating Jenkins to a bench role upon his return in September.

Werth had always been considered a talented prospect, with the ability to hit for average and power, speed, and decent outfield arm.  A devastating wrist injury derailed his career temporarily, costing Werth the entire 2006 season and sapping some of his power after that.  Last season he proved that his wrist has healed fully, but is he ready for a full season in the outfield?  Well, the Phillies certainly need him to be.

In 2008, Jayson Werth had a career high 418 at bats.  In those at bats, he hit .273/.363/.498, with 24 HR, 67 RBI and 20 SB.  Should he be healthy for a full season (say, 550 ABs), you could easily project a 30/30 season for Werth with a similar average and on base percentage.  This would be a fantastic season for Werth, and especially important considering that he will be counted on to be a steady right handed bat to balance all of the lefties in the lineup.  The key for Werth this season will be whether or not he can consistently hit right handed pitching, something he has struggled with his entire career.  He hit just .255 against righties last year, but improved over the second half.  He will have to prove to Charlie Manuel that he can hit righties consistently enough to warrant the 300+ ABs he could see against them in an everyday role.

If Werth is unable to do this, Jenkins is still around and could potentially take some of those at bats.  Jenkins is in the second year of a two year contract that pays him $6.75 million this season.  He struggled to begin last year, perhaps pressing a little bit, and then lost his job to Werth when he got hurt.  There could be some incentive on Jenkins’ part to perform well in the final year of his contract and perhaps earn himself a greater role than the one he finished last season with.  But the pressure will all be on Werth.  If he earns the job, it is his.  If not, there could be a whole lot of lefties in the middle of the lineup for the Phillies in 2009.

2009 Season Preview: Center Field

Shane Victorino will be the everyday center fielder for the Phillies in 2009.  He seemed to come into his own last season, moving over from right field to replace the departed Aaron Rowand.  The Flyin’ Hawaiian has speed for days and plays Gold Glove defense in center field.  Last season he lead the team with a .293 batting average and has some decent pop in his bat, hitting 14 homers, 30 doubles, and 8 triples.  The former Rule 5 pick (twice, actually) is a hard-nosed grinder who has endeared himself to the Philly faithful.

It is that hard-nosed style of play, however, that is cause for slight concern as he has had to make a trip to the DL in each of the last two seasons.  Neither trip cost him much more than the requisite 15 days, but it is important to note because the Phillies, for all of their organizational depth in the outfield, don’t really have anyone who can step in and play center for long stretches.  If Victorino were to go down for any length of time in ’09, Jason Werth would likely move over from right field.  This is not a terrible option, but it considerably diminishes the team’s outfield defense as Werth is not as good in center as Victorino and no one who would replace Werth is as good in right.

While Victorino brings a lot to the table as far as speed, defense, overall energy, and a decent bat, I would love to see him improve on some of the little things in 2009.  More than likely, Victorino will hit second this season.  The two-hole demands certain things of a hitter that Shane just doesn’t do all that well.  While his batting average is very good, he doesn’t walk enough or see enough pitches per at bat.  These faults are exacerbated because Jimmy Rollins hits leadoff and is unconventional in that role himself.  Also, Victorino does not hit behind the runner or bunt very well.  And he was caught stealing in 11 of 47 attempts last season, too low a percentage for someone with his speed and access to perhaps the best baserunning coach in the game in Davy Lopes.

But for all his faults, Victorino is still a fine center fielder and part of the core of a team that should contend in 2009 and beyond.  Victorino became arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and is under the Phillies control through 2011.  If he can continue to hit like he did last year and play the same stellar defense, the center field position should be just fine for the Phillies for the foreseeable future.

2009 Season Preview: Left Field

You can’t really talk about who’s in left field for the Phillies in 2009 without talking about who was in left field for the Phillies in 2008.  The only position on the field the team chose to change personnel at for 2009, the team signed Raul Ibanez and let Pat Burrell sign with Tampa Bay.  Can we consider Ibanez for Burrell an upgrade?  Lets take a look at the two players:

Pat Burrell has more power than Ibanez.  He is good for 30+ HRs and 90+ RBIs every year with a high on base percentage and a low batting average.  He’s also good for maddening inconsistency.  He was blistering hot in April last year, carrying the team for stretches.  He then disappeared in August and September, batting .181 and .205 in those months respectively.  His right-handed bat helped to balance the Phillies lineup, but he often had to be replaced late in games because his defense and baserunning were so horrendous.  He was often more unappreciated for what he wasn’t than appreciated for what he was.  Consistent really only in his inconsistency at the plate, Pat the Bat was nevertheless the consummate professional, a hard worker, and a key piece of the Phillies championship puzzle.  Even though we all knew he was a goner, one of the best parts of the World Series parade was Pat Burrell leading off the festivities on a carriage pulled by Clydesdales.

Raul Ibanez, on the other hand, is consistent in all the ways Pat Burrell is not.  Ibanez does not hit for as much power as Burrell, but he’s hit 20+ home runs in each of the last 4 seasons and ought to do pretty well in the power department after moving from Seattle’s Safeco Field to Citizen’s Bank Park.  Ibanez also hits for a much higher average than Burrell and is not prone to the extreme hot and cold streaks that we grew to expect from Pat.  Ibanez hits from the left side, and may cause the Phillies to be a little too left handed and therefore vulnerable to good lefty relievers late in games (not to mention Johan Santana).  Last year however, Ibanez hit much better against lefties than against righties (.305 to .288) so it may not be as big a deal as some people say it will be.  While he is no speed demon, Ibanez moves around in the outfield and on the bases better than Burrell did and probably won’t need to be replaced at the end of games the way Burrell so often was.  Like Burrell, Ibanez is also has a tremendous work ethic and professionalism and should fit in well in the clubhouse.

So basically, the Phillies traded a power and streakiness for average and consistency.  It should be noted that Ibanez is 4 years older than Burrell and signed a larger contract, but Ibanez is in immaculate shape and did not become an everyday player until later in his career.  The only possible concern is that the lineup becomes very left handed with Ibanez, but the trade off for a consistent RBI bat should make it worth it.  Consider the left field spot upgraded for ’09.

2009 Season Preview: Third Base

If healthy, Pedro Feliz is the starting third baseman for the Phillies this season.  But that’s a big if.  Feliz struggled to stay on the field because of a bad back during the second half last season, and when he played his performance suffered.  He hit just .189 with 2 HRs and 13 RBI after the all star break last season while spending some time on the DL.  Feliz had back surgery over the winter and has spent the offseason rehabbing in hopes of being ready for opening day.  But back injuries can be a tricky thing, so it will be interesting to see over the course of spring training whether or not his back will allow him to be ready for the beginning of the season.

Feliz is in the second year of a two year contract he signed before the ’08 season.  While he had a down year statistically last year (largely due to the bad back), the thought was that he could improve on the numbers he put up in San Francisco by moving to Citizen’s Bank Park.  In fact, an interesting theory as to why his back may have gone out last season is that he was over-swinging trying to reach that short left field porch.  Should he remain healthy this season, you would think that he would indeed still be able to put up some very good numbers in ’09.  Last season was the first since 2003 that he did not hit at least 20 HRs and he should be able to reach that number again this season.  Feliz has never been a high BA or OBP guy and he may not have as many RBI opportunities hitting 7th in the Phillies lineup, but if he can play 150 games this season he could hit .250 with 25 HRs and 75 RBI.  In addition, he plays some of the finest defensive third base in the league, which is important with lefty change-up artists Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer in the rotation.

But since Feliz is only signed through this season (there is a club option for ’10) and is somewhat of a health risk, it is important to consider the future of the position.  And it appears the future could be Jason Donald.  Donald is a middle infielder by trade, but the Phillies have worked him out at third over the offseason and during spring training.  Since there is no true third base prospect knocking on the door, Donald’s ability to convert to third base is key to the future of the position.  But there are some drawbacks.  Donald does not hit for the power that you would like to see out of a third baseman, but the team may be able to cover for that with some power from Rollins at short and Utley at second.  Besides the fact that Donald has not played the position before, his arm may not be good enough to play third either.  The Phillies are high on Donald however, and he is hard enough worker that he could make himself into a good third baseman for 2010.  He could find himself there this year, should Feliz be hampered by his back issues this season.  Marcus Giles and Miguel Cairo could also fill in if they can make the team out of spring training, and Greg Dobbs will get a few starts at third this season as well.

2009 Season Preview: Shortstop

Say what you want about Jimmy Rollins, but he is undoubtedly the engine that makes this Phillies team go.  And at age 30, still in the prime of his career, there is little reason to suspect that this won’t continue in 2009.  The outspoken Rollins made waves before the ’07 season when he declared the Phillies the “team to beat” in the NL East (turns out they were) and during the ’08 season when he called Philly fans “frontrunners” (not sure he used the right word, but I see his point).  The criticisms of Rollins as a leadoff hitter are many.  He doesn’t take enough pitches.  His on-base percentage isn’t high enough.  He swings for the fences too much.  There could even be something to be said for him dropping down in the order in ’09 to break up all the lefty bats in the heart of the lineup.  But ultimately I think that the best place for Jimmy is at the top of the lineup, as the leader and sparkplug of the Phillies offense.

Rollins had a down year statistically in ’08, on the heels of his MVP season in ’07.  This was at least partially due to an ankle injury he suffered in April, an injury he now says bothered him for the entire rest of the ’08 season.  Like Chase Utley, Rollins deserves a lot of credit for gutting it out with an injury last season as there is no way the Phils win the World Series without him.  While it is unrealistic to expect that Jimmy Rollins will ever reach his ’07 numbers again, we can expect improved numbers out of him if he is fully healthy again in ’09.  Jimmy probably is what he is at this point, sort of an unconventional leadoff hitter with a lower OBP but much more power (especially gap power) than most other one hole hitters.  He will probably hit in the .275-.280 range, with 40-45 doubles, 10+ triples, and 15-20 homers.  On top of that, he should steal 40+ bases and play Gold Glove defense at shortstop.

Should Rollins get hurt for a short period of time, Eric Bruntlett would fill in as he did last season when Jimmy made a trip to the DL.  Bruntlett doesn’t really do anything to get excited about.  He plays solid, but not great defense and doesn’t seem to be a particularly good hitter.  Charlie Manuel has said that Bruntlett is not competing for a roster spot this spring, and I’m not sure I understand this.  Shouldn’t he have to at least beat out non-roster invitees Marcus Giles and Miguel Cairo for a utility infield spot?  If he wins the job, fine.  But I don’t think Bruntlett is head and shoulders above either of those two players.

If Rollins is out for a longer period of time, it would make sense for the Phillies to give prospect Jason Donald a shot.  This is probably true if any of the Phillies starting infielders get hurt for an extended period of time.

2009 Season Preview: Second Base

Alright, let’s get something out of the way.  Chase Utley is dreamy.  I can’t write objectively about him, so I’m not even going to try.  But come on, objectively, Chase is the best second baseman in the game.  Even while playing the entire second half of the season with a bum hip, he still finished with a line of .292/.380/.535.  Not too shabby.  And while nobody could reasonably expect Utley to hit the 50 home runs he was on pace for in the first half of 2008, it is not unreasonable to project a statistical improvement if he is fully healthy in ’09.  Given his short, compact yet powerful stroke, I expect Utley to hit something like .310 with 35 HRs and 110 RBI.  In addition, Chase’s defense has improved steadily over the years, from below average, to adequate, to now even quite good.  All of these factors should lead to Utley being a leading contender for the MVP this season.

The problem with all this, of course, is that we don’t know for sure if his hip is fully healed.  The worst case scenario for his return when he had the surgery was late May- early June.  But reports out of Phillies came so far this spring are that it looks like Utley may be ready for Opening Day.  The team is taking things slow with Utley, but so far he has responded well to the work he is doing and there have been no setbacks.  Should this continue to be the case it would not be surprising to see Utley in the lineup on April 5.

But what happens if there is a setback and Utley must start the season on the DL?  Well first of all, bite your tongue.  Chase Utley will be just fine and that’s all I want to hear about it…  Seriously though, should Utley be out for any length of time the Phillies have a few options in camp, most of them good but none of them will replace all that Utley brings to the table.  Top prospect Jason Donald is working out this spring at second and third in case Utley or Pedro Feliz are unable to start the season.  His stock is rising in the eyes of many scouts and it may be time for the Phillies to give him a look in the big leagues, even if it is just as a utility player.  Veterans Marcus Giles, Pablo Ozuna, and Miguel Cairo are also in camp and any of those guys could be decent short term options should there be a need.

2009 Season Preview: First Base

Ryan Howard is going to be manning first base for the Phillies through 2011 thanks to the new 3 year, $54 million dollar contract he signed in the offseason.  I have to say, I love this contract for the Phillies.  First, while it is not a steal by any means, it is definitely fair market value for the best power hitter in the game.  Second, the best power hitter in the game is locked up through the remainder of his prime.  Howard will be 32 when his contract expires.  At that point the Phillies can decide whether it is worth it to commit big money to a power hitter on the downside of his career.  This decision will partly be based on what kind of physical shape Howard is in (players with his build tend not to age well) and whether he has put in the work to become the complete player he showed he could be as the NL MVP in 2006.  His average has dipped significantly over the last two seasons and his defense has gotten worse (though to be fair it was never good).

All of this brings me to the third and final reason I love this contract for the Phillies.  I think, more so than the average player, Ryan Howard was bothered by the money issue.  In the two seasons since he won the MVP, Howard has gotten off to mind numbingly horrible starts.  In the winter before the 2007 season, Howard and the Phillies were unable to come to terms on a contract, and because Howard was not yet eligible for arbitration the Phillies could renew him for whatever salary they saw fit.  Many thought it was a slight slap in the face that they renewed him for $900,000 rather than $1,000,000, which would have beaten Albert Pujols’ non-arbitration eligible salary record (he instead tied it).  The following offseason, he beat the Phillies in arbitration and earned $10 million for 2008, but the two parties were still unable to come to a long term agreement.  Now it is entirely possible that the offseason money issues had nothing to do with Howard’s last two seasons of poor starts, but he has let it be known that he considers himself a player in a unique salary class.  Though he is making a ton of money relative to his service time, Howard feels that he is a special case as his path to the majors was blocked until he was 26 by Jim Thome.  While there is no direct evidence to back this up, I sort of think that his drop in batting average over the last to seasons came as a result of his attempts to jack up his home run totals.  Home runs get you paid.  While his efforts to focus on the long ball weren’t successful (he has yet to match the HR total of his MVP season when he had 58, though to be fair he did miss 18 games in ’07), I believe his focus on homers caused his average to drop and his strikeouts to rise.  Ryan Howard has enough power to hit home runs in his sleep.  He can cut down some of the holes in his swing and still hit 45-50 HRs while hitting .280-.290.  Anyway, my point is that with his new contract he doesn’t have to worry about putting up numbers and just play.  Stories that he has dropped 20 pounds in the offseason and spent the winter working on his defense are extremely encouraging and I expect a great year out of Ryan Howard in 2009.

So what happens should Howard go down for any length of time?  Well, there is no way to replace the power that Howard brings to the lineup.  Should there be a short term injury, Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, or perhaps even Geoff Jenkins could fill in for a few days or a week.  If there is a situation where he is lost for a significant amount of time, the best solution may be to move Chase Utley over to first and give prospect Jason Donald a shot at second.  Incidentally, I think this is a likely scenario should the Phillies allow Howard to walk after 2011.

2009 Season Preview: Catcher

The catching position is perhaps the deepest in the Phillies oraganization right now, both in terms of veterans at the big league level and top prospects in the minor league system.  Lets take a look at how the Phillies catching situation might shake out, both in 2009 and beyond.

Carlos Ruiz is the clear starter headed into 2009.  Charlie Manuel loves the way he handles the staff, and with the lineup the Phillies have the team can afford to not get much offensively from the catcher spot.  This, of course, is a good thing considering that Ruiz hit just .219 during the regular season, a 40 point drop from 2007.  He did redeem himself in the playoffs, however, coming up with some very timely hits during the World Series run (not to mention catching the third strike of the final out to kick off the celebration).  You would have to think that he would return to the .250 range with his batting average and hopefully improve the slugging percentage as well.  But even if he doesn’t, he is solid defensively behind the plate and should catch about 120 games for the Phils in ’09.

It’s further down the organizational depth chart where things get interesting.  Ronny Paulino and Chris Coste figure to compete for the backup job, though it is possible that the Phils could carry three catchers to start the season and use Coste more as a righty pinch hitter with some pop.  It seems the organization has never fully trusted Coste, despite the fact that he has been productive offensively.  Adding Paulino to the mix could be a way to finally say goodbye to Coste, and the Marlins and Orioles have been mentioned as potential trade partners for the 35 year old.  Paulino, meanwhile, is just two seasons removed from hitting .310 as a rookie with the Pirates and being viewed as the catcher of the future in Pittsburgh.  The emergence of Ryan Doumit, along with questions about his attitude and desire, lead to the deal that brought Paulino over to Philly in exchange for Jason Jaramillo.  Perhaps a change of scenery could cause Paulino to reach his potential, and if it does he may find himself pushing Ruiz for at bats as the season progresses.  Of course, I’d never discount the ability of Coste to earn a spot on the roster yet again.

All of this discussion may be moot past 2009, as it looks like Ruiz, Paulino, and Coste are just serving to keep the position warm for when top prospect Lou Marson is ready.  Marson broke out last season in Reading, hitting .314 with a .433 OBP.  Marson is viewed as an every day catcher in the bigs who can hit for a high average.  He’s not projected to be a big time power threat and some scouts say he is still raw defensively, but he is only 22 so there is still time for development.  Barring a phenomenal spring, he will likely start the season at Lehigh Valley.  Should he continue to hit there, it is entirely possible that we could see Marson in Philadelphia sometime in ’09.  If all goes according to plan, he could be the catcher on Opening Day 2010 at the latest.

Perhaps the best catcher in the Phillies organization, however, is Travis D’Arnaud.  Though he is not as far along in the system as Marson, many scouts say the D’Arnaud is the more polished defensive catcher and has a cannon for an arm.  He may hit for more power than Marson as well, though he probably won’t hit for as high an average.  Though D’Arnaud is probably at least 2 or 3 years away from the majors, his presence in the system could allow for the Phillies to trade Marson, a coveted prospect throughout baseball, for a piece that could put them over the top at the trading deadline.  While I’d hate to trade a potential catcher of the future, if D’Arnaud continues his progression through the system the Phillies could choose to wait on him and have Ruiz, Paulino, or perhaps another veteran from outside the organization hold down the fort until D’Arnaud is ready.  I’m not saying this is an ideal or preferred scenario, but if a package starting with Lou Marson could yield us an ace in July, the team has the depth at catcher to be able to consider it.

2009 Season Preview: Bullpen

There’s no question that the Phillies World Series run in 2008 was keyed by the bullpen.  Philly lead the National League in bullpen ERA with a 3.22 last season, in contrast to 2007 when they were more than a run worse at 4.50.  It’s amazing how manager Charlie Manuel went from a corn-fed country dolt to a beloved World Champion once the bullpen became reliable.  My point is this: The bullpen matters.  But relief pitchers are also maddeningly inconsistent from year to year.  Most or all of the Phils relievers in 2008 had either career or near-career years in 2008.  With most of those pitchers back in 2009, will the team be able to match their bullpen success of a year ago?

Assuming that the Phillies carry 12 pitchers for most or all of the season (I think that’s a safe assumption), that leaves seven spots in the bullpen.  Of those spots, five appear to be locked up already with a sixth guaranteed to JC Romero when he returns from a 50 game suspension June 1.  Here’s a look at who we’ll see out the Phillies bullpen in 2009:

Brad Lidge:  “Lights Out” had perhaps one of the best seasons for a closer ever in 2008, going a perfect 48 for 48 in save chances including the playoffs.  And it’s not as if he gets by on guts and guile, Lidge is flat out dominant with his fastball/slider combo.  While it would be unreasonable to expect another perfect season in ’09, LO should remain one of the top closers in the game and leave the ninth inning mostly heart attack free for Phillies fans and Charlie Manuel.  Lidge signed a three year contract extension that will keep him turning out the lights in Philly through 2011.

Ryan Madson: Madson pitched very well for the Phillies down the stretch last season, splitting set up duties with JC Romero.  He even seemed to pick up a few more mph on his fastball in the second half, consistently touching 95-96.  He has steadily improved since dropping the idea of being a starter and he will be very important in the eighth inning this season, especially while Romero is serving his suspension.  Madson is just entering his prime and seems to be the best bet (besides Lidge) to repeat his performance from last season.  The Phillies seem to be confident in this, as they signed him to a 3 year, $12 million dollar contract in the offseason.

Chad Durbin: Durbin lead the National League with 87.2 relief innings pitched in 2008 and seemed to tire from it down the stretch.  2008 was also a career year for Durbin and I am concerned about his ability to repeat his performance in 2009.  The journeyman’s career had been marked by inconsistency before arriving in Philadelphia as teams never seemed to be able to define a role for him.  It seems like the swingman/multiple inning reliever role might  cause him to log too many innings and tire again.  However, he maybe effective an inning at a time in the sixth or seventh innings.  It will be interesting to see if Charlie Manuel attempts to limit his innings in ’09 and if it will make him more effective in the second half of the season.

Scott Eyre: After being cast off by the Cubs in ’08, Eyre pitched very effectively after arriving in Philadelphia via trade.  In ’09, the Phillies will need Eyre to step up his role for the first two months while Romero is out as he may be the only lefty the team carries in the bullpen.  The Phillies proved that you can get away with this set up last year, as Romero was the only lefty in the pen until Eyre arrived in August, but it is definitely not an ideal scenario.  Once Romero returns however, Eyre should settle in as a situational lefty, a role in which he excels.

Clay Condrey: Condrey was very effective for the Phillies last season, though I have no idea how.  I pretty much have a heart attack every time Charlie summons him from the bullpen.  He pitched particulary well in the second half, posting a 2.73 ERA and pitching in increasingly important situations.  While he should never see the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings of a close game, he could potentially be alright in ’09 pitching the sixth inning or mopping up games that are out of hand.  Despite what he did last season, he doesn’t really have the type of track record that makes me trust him in important situations.  I’ll be surprised if he holds on to his spot in the bullpen for the entire 2009 season.

JC Romero: Though he has a propensity for working himself into and out of jams, Romero is a strike out reliever that has proven himself to be a trustworthy set up man since arriving in Philadelphia halfway through the ’07 season.  Of course, he will not be available until June 1st this season after failing a drug test in ’08.  I have mixed feelings about Romero’s situation.  50 games seems like a harsh suspension for someone who is guilty of “negligence” and not cheating.  Everyone at Major League Baseball acknowledges the fact that Romero did not knowingly ingest a banned substance.  So I wonder why he would get the same suspension as someone who knowingly cheated the game?  But at the same time, with the steroid climate being what it is in baseball, players need to be more responsible for the things they put in their bodies and for being proactive about eliminating performance enhancing drugs from the game.  “I didn’t know” can no longer be an acceptable excuse, but there is a difference between negligence and juicing.  On the field, the Phillies will certainly miss Romero and the other relievers will need to step up until he returns.

Who else is in the mix? Well, that largely depends on who wins the fifth starter job, which I discussed here. If Chan Ho Park does not make the rotation, he will certainly be in the bullpen as a multiple inning guy.  If Kendrick wins the fifth starter spot, I would love to see JA Happ in the bullpen to try to get out lefties until JC Romero gets back.  I think that is a role he could excel in.  Other candidates for a bullpen spot include Dave Borkowski, Gary Majewski, Blaine Neal, Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, Mike Zagurski, Mike Koplove, and Robert Mosebach.  All of those players would need to be extremely impressive in spring training in order to win a spot, but it is a possibility especially if JA Happ either makes the rotation or the team decides he is better off starting in AAA.  Of those candidates, Mosebach intrigues me the most because he is a big, hard throwing guy who was just recently converted to a reliever and may be effective in that role.  He was a Rule 5 pick however, so the Phillies would risk losing him if he does not stay on the major league roster all season.

2009 Season Preview: Rotation

For all the talented hitters the 2008 Phillies had, the World Series was won with pitching.  For the team to repeat as World Champions, they will need another strong performance from the pitching staff.  Will they get it?  Let’s begin our 2009 season preview with a look at the starting rotation.

The top four spots in the rotation are set, and there will be a four way battle for the fifth spot in spring training.  The rotation looks like this:

Cole Hamels: The 25 year old NLCS and World Series MVP established himself as the ace of the staff and one of the top pitchers in the game last year.  He dominates hitters with a devastating change up and good command of his fastball, posting a 3.09 ERA and 196 strikeouts during the regular season and a 1.80 ERA with 30 K’s during his postseason coming out party.  So what could keep him from duplicating that performance in 2009?  Well, nothing I hope.  But the fact that he threw 262.1 innings lat season, and the fact that number represents 72.1 innings more than his previous career high, is cause for concern.  It’s not uncommon for young pitchers to break down in the season after they just blew by their career high for innings pitched, and Hamels has had some injury issues in the past.  To his credit, Cole has excellent mechanics and is devoted to his physical fitness.  It’s not out of line however, for Phils fans to cross their fingers and please, please, please hope that Hamels can stay healthy and give us 200+ innings.  If he can do that, he is a contender for the Cy Young.

Cole signed a three year contract this offseason that will preserve his last year of arbitration and the free agency that follows.  Provided he stays healthy, I don’t think he will ever actually reach free agency and will be a Phillie for a very long time.

Brett Myers: The issues with Brett Myers have always been consistency and maturity.  In 2007, after being named the opening day starter, he got lit up in April before emerging later in the year as a terrific closer and keying the division title run.  Last year, again the opening day starter, he never made the mental transition from the bullpen back to the rotation and pitched so horrifically that he was sent to the minors in July.  I believe that this trip to the minors caused a major acceleration in his maturation process.  Instead of sulking or refusing the assignment (which his veteran status would have allowed him to do), he worked on fixing his mechanics and his mental approach.  When he reemerged he was one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half of the season and a major reason the Phillies were able to make their World Series run.  This year, it has been reported that he showed up for spring training 30 pounds lighter.  It appears that he has turned a corner in the maturity department, now it remains to be seen if he can be a consistent performer over a full season.  The cynic in me thinks he will be as this is the last year of his contract and he will be a free agent after the year.  I could easily see him pitching 200+ innings with an ERA in the 3.80 range and 180-200 strikeouts.  If the Phillies could get this kind out season out of him they would be in pretty good shape.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Brett Myers after this season.  He has made well known his love for the organization and I would think he would accept a reasonable discount to stay.  However, I wonder if the love will be returned from the Phillies.  With some of the young guys (Carlos Carrasco?) perhaps ready to step into the rotation in 2010, I could see this turning into a Pat Burrell situation, where the Phillies thank him for the memories but make no real effort to resign him and decide to allocate his money elsewhere.

Jamie Moyer: Conventional wisdom says that it would be foolish to give a 46 year old pitcher a two year contract.  But Jamie Moyer has been pissing in conventional wisdom’s fish tank for his entire career.  Grandad lead the Phillies in wins last season and was second in starter’s ERA behind Cole Hamels.  So how will he perform in 2009?  I have no earthly idea.  It seems he is as likely to match last year’s numbers as he is to lose his spot in the rotation.  I mean, major league hitters are going to figure out that 82 mph fastball at some point, right?  I think that the most likely scenario is that Jamie regresses toward something like the numbers he put up in 2007, eating up close to 200 innings and putting up a good K/9 ratio, but with an ERA pushing 5.00.  This wouldn’t be terrible, especially if he can indeed throw a lot of innings and take some pressure off of a bullpen that will be short handed to start the season.

Moyer is signed through 2010, which is a great deal for him considering that if the Phillies had played hardball and allowed the market to settle as it did, he would have certainly been forced to take a one year contract.  Even if his numbers fall off a bit in 2009, his tremendously valuable to the team as a mentor and second pitching coach (a very good thing considering the first pitching coach is Rich Dubee) to an otherwise young staff.  It will be interesting to see if he will be able to hang on long enough to pitch until he’s 50, and if he will be a Phillie when he does it.

Joe Blanton: Big Joe came over from Oakland last year in July to little fanfare and even some disappointment from Philly fans who wanted the team to make a run at CC Sabathia.  After a shaky start, he pitched fairly well in August and September and endeared himself to fans with some very solid playoff performances and a home run (!) in game 4 of the World Series.  Joey Blants is an innings eater with good stuff who should be able to pitch 200+ innings for the Phils in ’09 with an ERA in the low 4′s.  I even think that there is an outside shot he could exceed those modest expectations as he may have the potential to be a 2-3 starter.  Still just 28, he had some terrific seasons for the A’s in 2005 and 2007.

Blanton is under the Phillies control through 2010.  I think the Phillies would like to see him pitch for them for at least a full season before deciding whether they want to do something long term with him.  You could certainly do a lot worse then having a workhorse like Blanton in the #4 spot in the rotation for the next two years.

5th Starter: The fifth starter spot will be decided in a spring training competition between JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park, and Carlos Carrasco.  Happ seemed like the fan favorite to win the spot over the winter based two solid September starts against the Braves.  But once the team arrived in Clearwater, pitching coach Rich Dubee declared Kendrick the frontrunner for the job based on his body of work over the last two years.  I have to admit I kind of like the logic in this.  I think that if Kendrick can indeed establish a change up to go with his trademark sinker he can and should win the spot.  Kyle is a gutsy pitcher whose style fits Citizen’s Bank Park very well.  If he can develop a solid change up he could match or exceed his numbers from 2007, when he pitched well enough to start game 2 of the NLDS vs. Colorado.  Of course, if it doesn’t work out with his change up, Kendrick probably doesn’t belong on a mjor league roster and is a candidate for a trade or Lehigh Valley.

If Kendrick doesn’t work out, my second choice for the spot is Chan Ho Park.  And no, I can’t believe I just wrote that either.  My reasoning for this is two fold.  First, even though his contract is relatively reasonable, I think that Park will be a bust coming out of the bullpen.  He was good enough for the Dodgers if you look at the overall numbers last year, but was mess for them down the stretch.  And even though he didn’t give up a run in 1.2 innings against the Phils in the NLDS, I wasn’t exactly worried when he was summoned from the pen.  He signed with the Phillies over the winter because they were the only team to offer him a shot at a starting job and that is where is heart is set.  He even tearfully announced that he would not be playing for his native South Korea in the World Baseball Classic in order to prepare himself to start.  I think that if he does not win the job and is forced to pitch out of the bullpen, he will sulk and will not pitch well.  His last two decent seasons (last year in LA and ’06 in San Diego) were in pitcher’s parks and if he is put in a swingman role that his heart is not in, he will get trashed in our little bandbox.  He might get trashed anyway.  I do not have high hopes for Chan Ho this year, unless he starts.  Then he could surprise.

Second, I am not a huge believer in JA Happ.  Sure, he seems to have a good mental makeup and he pitched very well in two starts last season.  But those starts came against a Braves team that looked like it had quit down the stretch.  Yes, those starts were very important for us and kudos to JA for coming through, but the lowly Nats played us tougher than the Braves last year.  If Happ truly pitches better than Park, Kendrick, and Carrasco this spring I am all for giving him the job, but I am not completely sold on him just just.  I think his ceiling is as a 3-4 starter in the major leagues and I’d actually prefer for him to start the season filling the lefty void in the bullpen until JC Romero returns.  I know he didn’t pitch as well out of the bullpen last season, but if he is prepared to start the season there he may excel.  He actually reminds me a bit of Romero in that he can be wild and seems to pitch himself in and out of jams.  That seems to translate better to the bullpen than the rotation.

Though Carlos Carrasco has the highest ceiling of any of the rotation candidates and should eventually form a terrific 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Cole Hamels, I don’t believe he has a real shot at winning the rotation spot on opening day.  I think he will start at Lehigh Valley and if he pitches well there we should see him later in the season, especially in case of an injury or the ineffectiveness of another starter.  I’m excited to see what this kid can do at the major league level, but I think we will have to wait at least a year to find out.

A quick word on Adam Eaton: He is a fat jerk and I hate his face.  But considering that he has $8.5 million left on his contract this season, why not at least throw him into the mix for the 5th starter spot?  I’m sure management knows more than about his competitiveness and makeup than I, but as long as we are on the hook for his money anyway, why not take one last shot at appealing to his pride as a man and see if he could earn the final rotation spot?  Then again, it’s Adam Eaton we’re talking about here.  Sorry I said anything.